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Earthquakes, climate and natural hazards

Which risks should be reduced before the next emergency, and who maintains the protection?

Place-specific evidence and policy choices. A budget promise is not a completed service; older figures retain their reporting period. Proposed options and indicators below are for public discussion, not adopted government commitments.

Contested choiceA regional priority with choices about delivery and fairness

Which risks should be reduced before the next emergency, and who maintains the protection?12

Updated 2026-10-13 · Version 1 · Sources · Change history

Question 1 What is the issue, and why does it matter?

The province was hit by the Doti earthquake of 2022 and the Bajhang earthquake of 2023, both included with the 2023 Jajarkot earthquake in the government's post-disaster needs assessment. The provincial plan says climate change, environmental risk, natural disasters and difficult terrain are creating further problems for farming, infrastructure and livelihoods.12

The choice is how to improve outcomes in this province, who benefits first, and which institution can act. The figures below belong to the stated reporting period; they are not a real-time measure of today’s conditions.

Question 2 What do current law and policy say?

Federal: International treaties, international borders and boundary rivers; water-resource policy; transmission; large projects (Sch. 5 items 7, 11, 12, 14). Provincial: Province-level electricity (Sch. 6 item 7); provincial boundary rivers concurrent with the federation (Sch. 7 item 13). Local: Small hydropower and alternative energy (Sch. 8 item 19).3

Federal: Health policy and specialised hospitals (Sch. 5 item 16). Provincial: Health services; higher education (Sch. 6 items 8, 9); disaster response concurrent (Sch. 7 item 17). Local: Basic and secondary education; basic health; disaster management (Sch. 8 items 8, 9, 20).3

Provincial executive power rests with the Council of Ministers. The Chief of Province (governor) performs constitutional and legal functions, generally on the Council’s recommendation and consent; the governor is not the department delivering these services. Provincial revenue and expenditure estimates go to the Provincial Assembly.4

Question 3 What is known, uncertain or disputed?

Known

The province was hit by the Doti earthquake of 2022 and the Bajhang earthquake of 2023, both included with the 2023 Jajarkot earthquake in the government's post-disaster needs assessment. The provincial plan says climate change, environmental risk, natural disasters and difficult terrain are creating further problems for farming, infrastructure and livelihoods.12

Uncertain

A province-wide number does not identify the worst-served wards or prove the same problem in every municipality. Before spending, establish a current local baseline, service quality, staffing, access barriers and the full operating cost.

Disputed

The policy choice is how to balance universal access, concentrated investment, affordability and fiscal sustainability. The alternatives below are Policy Nepal’s discussion options derived from the problem evidence, not claims that officials or parties have endorsed them.

Questions 4–5 What are the options, and what do they cost and achieve?

Options are listed in no particular order. Policy Nepal does not recommend one; real policies often combine them.

Prioritise preparedness and existing assets12

Map exposed settlements and essential facilities; clear drainage, stabilise critical slopes, maintain evacuation routes and practise warnings people can act on.

Benefits
  • Focuses limited resources on reducing exposure and keeping services working.
Costs
  • Risk mapping, local teams, maintenance and accessible warnings require regular funding.
Trade-offs
  • Warnings do not make an unsafe home or road safe; households may need relocation support.
What does implementation require?
  • Assign named offices for each critical asset, test warning reach and publish drill findings without exposing vulnerable households.

Build safer reconstruction and basin-wide protection12

Rebuild to verified safety standards and coordinate river, road and settlement interventions across municipal boundaries.

Benefits
  • Can reduce repeated losses and restore access to schools, clinics and markets.
Costs
  • Requires design review, skilled supervision, land agreements and long-term maintenance.
Trade-offs
  • An embankment can shift flood risk elsewhere; resettlement must protect livelihoods and rights.
What does implementation require?
  • Publish hazard assumptions, affected-household consultation, inspection results and a funded maintenance plan before declaring completion.

Combining options

Start with a verified baseline and maintenance of functioning services, then test additional investment against the same outcomes. Publish who pays for capital costs, recurring costs and any household charges; an unfunded operating plan is not a sustainable solution.

Question 6 Who is responsible?

Shared
Hydropower and the Mahakali

Federal: International treaties, international borders and boundary rivers; water-resource policy; transmission; large projects (Sch. 5 items 7, 11, 12, 14). Provincial: Province-level electricity (Sch. 6 item 7); provincial boundary rivers concurrent with the federation (Sch. 7 item 13). Local: Small hydropower and alternative energy (Sch. 8 item 19).3

Shared
Schools, health and disasters

Federal: Health policy and specialised hospitals (Sch. 5 item 16). Provincial: Health services; higher education (Sch. 6 items 8, 9); disaster response concurrent (Sch. 7 item 17). Local: Basic and secondary education; basic health; disaster management (Sch. 8 items 8, 9, 20).3

Provincial
Chief Minister, Council of Ministers and Provincial Assembly

Provincial executive power rests with the Council of Ministers. The Chief of Province (governor) performs constitutional and legal functions, generally on the Council’s recommendation and consent; the governor is not the department delivering these services. Provincial revenue and expenditure estimates go to the Provincial Assembly.4

Question 7 What have parties and leaders said and done?

What was said or promised is shown apart from what was recorded as done. Every entry needs a dated source. A missing entry means the position is not established, not that someone opposes or is neutral.

This dossier presents official evidence and research options. It does not assign a position to a chief minister, governor, mayor or political party without a dated source specific to this issue.

Said or promised

Position not established in reviewed sources.

Recorded actions and outcomes

Position not established in reviewed sources.

Question 8 What would progress look like, and when do we check again?

IndicatorLatest official figureOfficial targetRevisit
Warning reach and time to restore essential services after an event12 Not established No official target found 2026-10-20
Risk-reduction assets inspected and maintained before the hazard season12 Not established No official target found 2026-10-20

Sources

Grouped by type of evidence. Government plans show what government intends; they are not proof of results. Party material shows what a party says.

Constitution & law

  1. The Constitution of Nepal (English translation, as amended by the Second Amendment, 2020), Schedules 4–9 — Nepal Law Commission, Government of Nepal, Promulgated 20 September 2015; amended 28 February 2016 and 18 June 2020 (as stated in the document). Schedule 4, list for 'Province No. 7', pp. 190–192; Schedule 5 (federal) items 7, 9, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 22, 26, 27, 29, 30, 32, 34, pp. 193–195; Schedule 6 (provincial) items 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 17, 19, 20, pp. 196–197; Schedule 7 (federal–provincial concurrent) items 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 18, 23, 25, pp. 198–199; Schedule 8 (local) items 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, pp. 200–201; Schedule 9 (all three levels) items 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, p. 202. Checked 2026-10-11
  2. Constitution of Nepal, English translation with first and second amendments — Nepal Law Commission. Articles 162, 166, 207–208; Schedules 6–9. English translation; Nepali text authoritative.. Checked 2026-10-13

Government plans & policy

  1. दोस्रो पञ्चवर्षीय योजना (आ.व. २०८३/८४–२०८७/८८) 'समुन्नत सुन्दर सुदूरपश्चिम' (Second Five-Year Plan) — Province Policy and Planning Commission, Sudurpashchim Province Government, 2083 BS (plan period 2083/84–2087/88). 1.3.1 (permanent capital Godawari, Kailali; currently in Dhangadhi), printed p. 4 (PDF p. 26); 1.3.5 economic sector (agriculture, remittances, cross-border trade with India; potential sectors; tourist sites incl. Shuklaphanta and Khaptad), printed p. 7 (PDF p. 29); infrastructure review 2077/78–2080/81 (water, roads, electricity, irrigation), printed p. 20 (PDF p. 42); main problems and challenges, printed p. 22 (PDF p. 44); 5.5.2 tourism situation, printed pp. 109–110 (PDF pp. 131–132); trade and supply situation incl. Chandani-Dodhara dry port, printed p. 125 (PDF p. 147); 7.5 energy (potential, major projects, 171 MW connected, 86.6% household access), printed pp. 236–237 (PDF pp. 258–259). Checked 2026-10-11

Independent research

  1. Western Nepal Earthquake 2023: UNDP Update No. 2 — United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Nepal, 12 December 2023. p. 2: government post-disaster needs assessment covering the Doti 2022, Bajhang 2023 and Jajarkot 2023 earthquakes. Checked 2026-10-11
Change history
  1. 2026-10-13 — Expanded the province challenge into the same eight-question format as national issues. (Regional issues deserve equally accessible evidence, options, responsibilities and tracking. Original dates and sources retained; policy options are editorial proposals.)